As the U.K. referendum on whether to remain in or leave the European Union draws nearer, politicians and bankers from other European cities are circling the prospective carcass of London’s financial center like vultures above a stranded, parched wayfarer.

Back in February, Emmanuel Macron, the French economy minister, said Paris would “roll out the red carpet” for U.K. bankers should the country vote for Brexit — and on Wednesday kicked off a new campaign to tout the French capital as a center of global finance. In May, Martin Shanahan of Ireland’s Industrial Development Agency said Brexit would help his quest to attract10,000 financial services jobs to Dublin. Not to be outdone, Hubertus Väth, the managing director of Frankfurt Main Finance, has said his city, too, is ready for an influx of bankers from London. And similar noises have been emanating from Luxembourg, Amsterdam, Munich, Stockholm, and other European financial centers in the weeks leading up to the vote.

While the U.K. is only the fifth-largest economy in the world, it is the largest exporter of financial services.

It’s not surprising that officials in those cities are licking their lips at the thought of becoming “the new City of London.” While the U.K. is only the fifth-largest economy in the world, it is the largest exporter of financial services. London’s net contributions to the country’s balance of trade and the exchequer all can be counted in the tens of billions of dollars. The export of London’s financial services to the EU alone accounts for some $30 billion or so per year, more than 1 percent of Britain’s GDP. If the U.K. were to Brexit and lose full access to EU markets — in particular, the right to provide cross-border services — a fair chunk of this EU business would be up for grabs elsewhere in Europe. So, could a European city such as Paris really become the new London — in financial terms, at least — if the U.K. votes for Brexit?

Image: London. Timeout Magazine.