We could be closer to meeting the Paris Agreement than we think: According to an analysis compiled by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of the Marshall Islands, about 58 countries have now ratified, or have pledged to work to ratify, the Paris Agreement by the end of 2016. What’s more, these countries represent about 54% of the world’s global emissions.

The Paris Agreement will enter into force 30 days after at least 55 countries representing at least 55% of the world’s emissions have ratified the agreement, so this analysis suggests that we could be within 1 percent point of bringing the agreement into force by the end of the year.

As a release from the Marshall Islands explains, “If countries representing just over 1% of global emissions are now also able to do so before the end of 2016, this would likely tip the Agreement above its entry-into-force threshold of 55 countries accounting for at least 55% of global emissions. For example, achieving this now would likely only require Russia, India, Japan, Brazil, Korea, South Africa or Turkey to also ratify the Agreement in 2016.”