A recent study examined the national commitments made by 195 countries — their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, or INDCs — and found them insufficient to keep the world below 2 degrees of global warming, Adele Peters reports for Co.Exist. 

The study, published in the journal Nature, looked at the INDCs at the Paris climate talks in 2015, where countries agreed to keep global warming “well below 2 degrees Celsius,” and ideally closer to 1.5 degrees of warming. The problem, the study suggests, is that the INDCs as they currently stand will not get us to that target, even if met completely and by all countries.

This isn’t the first study to point out this issue, Peters explains. Researchers analyzed the findings of all previous INDC studies and recalculated how much the pledges are likely to affect global warming. While the data found that the INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, the reductions simply won’t be enough to keep warming below 2 degrees, with median warming expected somewhere between 2.6–3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100.

The good news? If we choose to act, this is only the start. The Paris Agreement was built for a ramping up of INDCs, both in ambition and scope, over time. And we’ll need to ramp up, as the report explains that “substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.”