Scientists can now say with confidence whether heat waves, such as the one that struck Russia in 2010 and caused 55,000 deaths, are linked to climate change. But when it comes to storms like Typhoon Haiyan, which battered the Philippines last year, their methods hit a brick wall of uncertainty.
The findings are included in a sweeping report the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine released last week that tries to answer the question often posed after a nasty spell of weather.
Was it triggered by humanity’s carbon emissions?
Answering it can be challenging, not least because the question is badly crafted. All scientists agree that human-caused climate change has fundamentally altered the planet. All weather is caused, to varying degrees, by both nature and climate change.