As one of the most water poor nations in the world, the country of Jordan’s worst-case climate scenario would include more drought – and unfortunately that’s exactly what new research projects. A new study from the journal Science finds that climate change could increase both the number and severity of droughts in Jordan, which is already the fourth driest country on Earth.

If man-made greenhouse gas emissions remain unchecked, the frequency of drought could increase from 7 out of every 30 years to 28 out of every 30 years. Moreover, the research suggests that droughts could also increase in severity, resulting in extreme rainfall deficit situations the country has not seen in the last three decades. Of course, the availability of water is also dependent on surrounding political factors, such as the conflict in Syria. The war has decreased the amount of farming in the region, which has decreased water intake from shared water resources between Syria and Jordan. However, the research finds that even under the “best-case” scenario, Jordan is still likely to experience 51 percent less inflow into the Al-Wehda dam in 2016-2050 – compared to 1981-2010 – because of climate change.